This week’s Champions League action includes Benfica vs. PSG on Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. Both of these teams have unblemished records of 13-1-0 and 11-1-0, respectively, across all tournaments. Given that both Benfica and PSG have six points in the Champions League, one of them might leave Wednesday’s match with a definite edge in Group H.
Now, in actuality, Ligue 1 and Liga NOS both have challenges. We may then compare their domestic results on an equal footing. However, PSG is among the favorites in the Champions League odds and has a distinct and visible advantage in terms of their on-field skill. The Parisians often go through the group stages, having lost only one of their previous 11 games.
On the other hand, they play a Benfica team on Wednesday that is well organized. In their previous five games, the Eagles have only given up once, and it took a fantastic Juventus set-piece goal to do it. The finest attacking line PSG has likely faced this season is their front four, which consists of David Neres, Rafa Silva, Joao Mario, and Goncalo Ramos.
PSG vs Benfica OKBET Betting Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Benfica | +325 |
| PSG | -135 |
| Draw | +320 |
Odds from OKBET Sportsbook as of October 4.
With odds of -135, PSG is the moneyline favorite, but not by a wide margin. Moneyline odds for Benfica are +325, which is clearly quite valuable on its own.
Given that Benfica does have the second-best chance to advance from Group H, the odds should really be closer (-1000). They have been outstanding so far, and don’t forget their impressive win streak from the previous campaign, which included victories against Spartak Moscow, PSV, Barcelona, Dinamo Kyiv, and Ajax. Simply told, don’t overlook Roger Schmidt’s team; they were competitive with Liverpool as well.
Player goal props and over/under odds
In any case, the over/under on 2.5 total goals is now at -200. Although there are +120 odds on the over 3.5 goals, just one of their four combined Champions League games had seen this outcome. Even if you think PSG has a clear edge, do not anticipate them to score a lot of goals against a solid defense.
PSG vs Benfica Statistics
| Benfica | VS | PSG |
| 2.38 | Goals per game | 3.11 |
| 2.49 | Expected goals per game | 2.61 |
| 0.38 | Goals allowed per game | 0.56 |
| 0.69 | Expected goals allowed per game | 0.76 |
| 69.0% | Possession % | 60.0% |
| 75.0% | Clean Sheet % | 56.0% |
| 19.88 | Shots per game | 19.00 |
Statistics from domestic league play in 2022–2023.
With anytime odds of +105, Lionel Messi is the player I genuinely think will score. Messi has scored in each of his previous four matches for club and country, and he now simply looks to be having fun. In addition, I believe it will require some deft play to get past Nicolas Otamendi and Benfica’s defense. Neymar’s flare and Kylian Mbappe’s speed might be too direct, but what about a Messi curler? It receives my approval.
Projected lineups and injuries for Benfica vs PSG
Vlachodimos, Grimaldo, Otamendi, Silva, Bah, Fernandez, Luis, Mario, Silva, Neres, and Ramos are the projected starters for Benfica.
Morato, Verissimo, and Victor had major injuries and absences.
Donnarumma, Mendes, Pereira, Marquinhos, Ramos, Hakimi, Vitinha, Ruiz, Neymar, Mbappe, and Messi are projected to start for PSG.
Kimpembe, Sanches, Veratti, and Pembele all have significant injuries and absences.
PSG vs Benfica Prediction
Sincerely, I have no doubt that Benfica will score against PSG and turn this into a contest. They are more than capable of scoring even without Darwin Nunez. Their top foursome is incredibly imaginative, and they complement one another so wonderfully. They may even be able to outperform Christophe Galtier’s team in the fight for possession.
But I believe PSG just outplayed them in the evening’s final moments. They have a lethal counterattack, and it only takes one mistake for them to launch it. PSG’s back five provides them with more protection, ensuring that Benfica cannot run amok even with certain components missing in the middle.
I believe that PSG will win by a score of 2-1 so that they can grab the group’s first lead.
Overall, I really like the +190 odds for PSG to win and for both teams to score. This is a play with high value and a huge reward. More significantly, it coincides with how I see the outcome of this match.
Pick ON SG to win & BTTS | +190
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